Hiring in the United States is on the rise, along with wages

Employers created 272,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, well above what economists had expected as hiring gradually slowed. That’s an increase from the average of 232,000 jobs over the previous 12 months, muddying the picture of an economy that is relaxing to a more sustainable pace.

Most worrying for the Federal Reserve, which meets next week and then again in July, is that wages rose 4.1% from a year ago, a sign that inflation may not yet be defeated.

“For those who thought they would see a rate cut in July, that door has largely been closed,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at U.S. Bank. While wage increases are good for workers, she noted, persistent price increases undermine their spending power.

Stocks fell shortly after the report, before recovering and trading slightly higher. Treasury yields, which track expectations for the Fed’s rate moves, rose sharply and remained elevated throughout the trading day.

But the picture of an accelerating labor market is also not entirely clear. Elsewhere in the report, the unemployment rate rose to 4%, its highest point since January 2022. That number is from a household survey, which showed essentially no job growth over the past year and an increase in part-time employment, with part-time job growth displacing full-time positions.

Employer data that generates job growth numbers tends to be more reliable, but the household survey has recently been more consistent with other indicators. Retail sales flattened. Gross domestic product fell significantly in the first quarter. The number of job offers is at its lowest level since 2021.

That’s why most economists expect job growth to continue to slow and the unemployment rate to rise further this year.

“Other than healthcare, we don’t see much strength in the data,” said Parul Jain, chief investment strategist at MacroFin Analytics. “Growth in 2024 is unlikely to be very strong, consumers are retreating significantly and we expect disposable income to be affected as well.”

Health care was the backbone of hiring for two and a half years, accounting for 18.6% of jobs added. An aging population has spurred demand, and increased insurance coverage through the Affordable Care Act has given more people access to care.

On the other hand, leisure and hospitality, which was hit harder than any other sector by the Covid-19 lockdowns, took until April to regain its February 2020 employment level. A season’s forecast record summer travel could push that number higher in the coming months, though few expect job growth to surpass last year’s numbers.

For example, this week United Airlines announced that it expects to create 10,000 jobs this year, up from 16,000 in 2023 and 15,000 the year before, as the post-pandemic recovery transforms into organic growth.

One reason job growth beat forecasts was government employment, which recovered quickly but was expected to collapse as federal pandemic relief funds ran out. The sector instead added 43,000 jobs in May. But a slowdown may still be in sight.

This is already evident to Peter Finch, the superintendent of the West Valley School District, which is located outside Yakima, Washington. Funding in the American Rescue Plan Act had allowed him to add staff members such as mental health counselors and tutors, but now he is unable to fill positions as people leave.

“It’s a challenging time for education,” Dr. said. Finch. “If you have fewer resources, you can’t provide the same services you had in the past — that’s the reality.”

The impressive labor market run has been fueled by both a resurgence in legal immigration and an influx of millions of migrants with temporary status, many of whom have found jobs with the help of fast-track work permits. According to calculations from the WE Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, hiring fell sharply for native-born workers but held up for foreign-born workers.

That impact could also wane as President Biden’s executive order restricting asylum seekers’ access to the southern border goes into effect.

A positive sign concerns the workforce: the percentage of people between 25 and 54 years old who work or are looking for work has reached the highest level since the beginning of 2002, equal to 83.6%. Women in that age group led the way and in May achieved their highest participation rate ever.

The picture isn’t so rosy for adults in their 20s, whose participation rate dropped in May. As employers hang on to their employees and fewer and fewer leave voluntarily, there is less space for those with little work experience, who find work at lower rates.

Even workers over 55 have not returned to work en masse: their participation rate remains two percentage points lower than before the pandemic. But some people have been turned away because costs have risen and pension funds have been unable to cover them.

Take John Refoy, 67, who retired from the Navy after 33 years as a maintenance technician.