Syria’s ongoing turmoil despite the fall of Assad’s regime

Following the rapid overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by Islamist rebels, Syria continues to face significant instability. The interim administration, under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa, is struggling with increasing security issues, such as fierce resistance from Assad’s remaining supporters. Although the fall of Assad’s repressive regime was a pivotal moment in Syria’s 13-year conflict, achieving lasting peace remains a complex challenge.

The interim government, primarily made up of individuals who gained influence from opposition areas such as Idlib in the northwest, has taken over a nation left divided and ravaged by prolonged conflict. The elimination of Assad-era institutions, including the military and the Baath Party, has led to the displacement of countless former regime members and supporters. A significant number of these individuals have declined to accept the new government’s authority, contributing to instability that jeopardizes the delicate administration.

A persistent danger from Assad supporters

A lingering threat from Assad loyalists

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights recently highlighted a fatal ambush in the province of Latakia, where gunmen attacked government troops trying to detain a former Assad official. This assault resulted in the deaths of at least 13 security members and sparked a surge of violence throughout the area. By the next day, confrontations had intensified, leading to more than 120 fatalities—a clear indication of the difficulties confronting the interim administration.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights recently reported a deadly ambush in Latakia province, where gunmen targeted government forces attempting to apprehend a former Assad official. The attack left at least 13 security personnel dead and set off a wave of violence across the region. By the following day, clashes had escalated, resulting in over 120 deaths—a stark reminder of the challenges facing the interim government.

The Institute for the Study of War, a research organization, has warned that Assad loyalists are likely to form some of the most effective insurgent cells in Syria. Their familiarity with military tactics and their ability to utilize established networks give them a strategic advantage in coordinating attacks against the new government. For interim President Sharaa, this growing insurgency represents the most significant obstacle to consolidating authority and ensuring national security.

The rebel activities in Latakia and Tartous have intensified the friction between Syria’s Sunni-led interim government and the Alawite minority, a Shia sect that was the core of Assad’s administration. The Alawites, who held influence and advantages during Assad’s rule, have suffered considerable setbacks following its downfall. Despite Sharaa’s promises to honor Syria’s varied religious groups, many now feel excluded and under threat.

Recent accounts of aggression toward Alawite communities have heightened these tensions. Activists have alleged that armed groups associated with the government have killed numerous male residents in Alawite regions, an allegation yet to be independently confirmed but has nevertheless incited anger. These occurrences could potentially push more Alawites toward joining insurgent factions, complicating the government’s attempts to stabilize the area.

The scenario in Syria’s southern region continues to be unstable. Despite an agreement struck with Druze forces earlier this week to reduce hostilities, the government still encounters opposition from multiple factions nationwide. Given that various areas are governed by rival groups supported by external powers, the interim government’s influence is both restricted and divided.

The situation in Syria’s south also remains precarious. While a deal was reached with Druze forces earlier this week to ease tensions, the government continues to face resistance from various factions across the country. With different regions controlled by competing groups backed by foreign powers, the interim administration’s authority is limited and fragmented.

In addition to the pressing security challenges, Syria’s interim government is facing a severe economic crisis. Years of conflict have resulted in nine out of ten Syrians living in poverty, and the nation continues to suffer under the heavy international sanctions placed during Assad’s tenure. Sharaa’s government has prioritized the removal of these sanctions, seeing it as vital for economic recovery and establishing legitimacy worldwide.

Beyond the immediate security threats, Syria’s transitional government is contending with a dire economic situation. Years of war have left nine out of ten Syrians living in poverty, and the country remains under crippling international sanctions imposed during Assad’s rule. Sharaa’s administration has made lifting these sanctions a priority, viewing it as essential to rebuilding the economy and gaining legitimacy on the global stage.

A nation split

A country divided

For Sharaa, the challenge of bringing the nation together involves winning the people’s trust as much as it does defeating the insurgent menace. His administration has urged ex-members of Assad’s security apparatus to lay down their arms and embrace reconciliation, yet advancement has been gradual. “We are monitoring everyone, but we aim to avoid giving the impression of a witch hunt,” stated a senior official in the interim government. This careful strategy illustrates the fragile equilibrium the new leadership must maintain as it seeks to re-establish order without isolating important parts of the populace.

The Path Forward

The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad represented a crucial shift in Syria’s history, yet the nation’s journey toward peace and stability is still laden with challenges. From the insurgent dangers posed by Assad supporters to the profound rifts among Syria’s religious and ethnic groups, the journey forward is unpredictable. The interim administration must tackle these hurdles while attending to the urgent needs of a populace ravaged by over ten years of conflict.

Simultaneously, Syria’s leaders are under increasing international examination as they strive to remove sanctions and obtain the necessary support for reconstruction. For the transitional government, success will rely on effectively tackling the roots of unrest, promoting inclusivity, and showing a true dedication to moving away from the authoritarian practices of the past.

At the same time, Syria’s leaders face mounting international scrutiny as they seek to lift sanctions and secure the support needed to rebuild the country. For the transitional government, success will depend on its ability to address the root causes of unrest, foster inclusivity, and demonstrate a genuine commitment to breaking from the authoritarian practices of the past.

As clashes continue and tensions rise, Syria’s future hangs in the balance. The coming months will be critical for Sharaa’s government as it works to consolidate power, restore security, and lay the foundation for a more stable and prosperous nation.